For employment gains, USA Inc. should minimize tax and regulatory uncertainties and
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For employment gains, USA Inc. should minimize tax and regulatory uncertainties and
encourage businesses to add workers. While hiring and R&D-related tax credits may add to
near-term deficits, over time, they should drive job and GDP growth. Immigration reform could
also help: A Federal Reserve study in 2010 shows that immigration does not take jobs from
U.S.-born workers but boosts productivity and income per worker.
Changing tax policies.
Using another simple mechanical illustration, covering the 2010 budget deficit (excluding one-
time charges) by taxes alone would mean doubling individual income tax rates across the board,
to roughly 26-30% of gross income, we estimate. Such major tax increases would ultimately be
self-defeating if they reduce private income and consumption. However, reducing tax
expenditures and subsidies such as mortgage interest deductions would broaden the tax base
and net up to $1.7 trillion in additional revenue over the next decade, per CBO. A tax based on
consumption - like a value added tax (VAT) - could also redirect the economy toward savings
and investment, though there would be drawbacks.
These issues are undoubtedly complex, and difficult decisions must be made. But
inaction may be the greatest risk of all. The time to act is now, and our first responsibility
as investors in USA Inc. is to understand the task at hand.
Our review finds serious challenges in USA Inc.’s financials. The ‘management team’ has
created incentives to spend on healthcare, housing, and current consumption. At the margin,
investing in productive capital, education, and technology — the very tools needed to compete in
the global marketplace — has stagnated.
America’s Resources Allocated to Housing + Healthcare Nearly Doubled as a Percent
of GDP Since 1965, While Household and Government Savings Fell Dramatically
Healthcare + Housing Spending vs. Net Household +
Government Savings as % of GDP, 1965-2009
— Housing + Healthcare Spending as % of GDP
—oO=Net Household + Government Savings as % of GDP
As % of GDP
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
Note: Housing includes purchase, rent and home improvement. Government savings occur when government runs a surplus.
Ta Source: BEA, CMS via Haver Analytics.
< kpcb.com USA Inc. | Summary
CB www.kpcb.com USA Inc. xvii
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_020840
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