Bullying the Neighbors: Frozen Conflicts

Freedom House Chapter 7 Bullying the Neighbors: Frozen Conflicts, the Near Abroad, and Other Innovations Vladimir Putin's publicists have used the phrase “sovereign democracy” to describe the political system that evolved in Russia under his leadership. In practice, however, Putin's regime respects neither democracy nor sovereignty. Sovereign democracy bears no more resemblance to the unmodified original than did previous variants: guided democracy, managed democracy, people's democracy. Nor does sovereign democracy represent a genuine commitment to the notion of national sovereignty, as countries on the Russian periphery will attest. On repeated occasions, Putin has demon- strated a readiness to intervene in the affairs of nearby countries by fomenting ethnic discontent, undermin- ing the economy, or grabbing territory. Putin has in effect set down a doctrine of limited sovereignty for Russia's neighbors, especially those that were part of the Soviet Union. The Kremlin's tactics are meant to keep these countries fearful and off balance. The instruments of choice range from the nonviolent, such as destabilizing propaganda and economic pressure, to the lethally aggressive, such as proxy insurgencies and outright invasion. The following are the main techniques employed by the Kremlin to influence the actions of its neighbors: 1. Civil society and ‘traditional values’: The Krem- lin has funded and encouraged pro-Russian civil society organizations in neighboring states to “Certainly within the next four to five years [Russia] will have the ability to conduct operations in eastern Ukraine and pressure the Baltics and pressure Georgia and do other things, without having to do a full mobilization.” —U.S. Lieutenant General Ben Hodges 3. The energy weapon: At various times during Pu- tin’s tenure, Russia has sought to use its oil and natural gas exports as a means of disciplining Ukraine and other neighbors. It has raised and lowered prices for political reasons, abruptly halted deliveries in the dead of winter, and ma- nipulated pipeline routes and investments to drive a wedge between Germany and other Eu- ropean powers on one side and the Baltic states and Ukraine on the other. . The trade weapon: Russia has invoked dubious health concerns and other pretexts to block the import of products from countries whose governments displease Putin, including Georgia, Moldova, and Poland, as well as the European Union (EU) as a bloc.® 5. Cyberwarfare: Russian-backed hackers are build influence among local populations and promote its policies and interests. The Russian government has also exploited its partnership with the Orthodox Church to present itself as a champion of “traditional values,” and to portray opponents—including human rights activists and European democracies—as purveyors of hedonism and immorality.’ . Propaganda offensives: The Kremlin has made powerful use of Russian-language media, es- pecially state-controlled television stations, to spread disinformation and foment discontent among ethnic Russians in the Baltics, Ukraine, Moldova, and elsewhere. widely believed responsible for a powerful 2007 cyberattack on government websites in Estonia in the wake of a controversy over the removal of a war memorial. Other countries in the region have since suffered similar attacks, particularly Ukraine following the 2014 ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych and Russia’s invasion of Crimea and the Donbas. . Military threats: In the wake of the Ukraine inva- sion and subsequent sanctions, the Russian mil- itary launched a series of military exercises on its borders with the Baltic states and intensified more distant patrols that tested the readiness of a number of European navies and air forces. www.freedomhouse.org 47 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_019281