on bin Laden, whose money, mystique, and connections to wealthy
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on bin Laden, whose money, mystique, and connections to wealthy
Gulf Arabs gave Al Qaeda an advantage few other terror groups have
ever enjoyed. Zawahiri has experience in rebuilding broken terrorist
groups; his own organization in Egypt, Al Jihad, was twice wiped out
by operational errors, and Zawahiri had to rally the demoralized
survivors, even pretending to step aside from power, although he was
never really far from the controls. His ultimate solution was to merge
Al Jihad with Al Qaeda, making it into an Egyptian body with a
Saudi head. Now that bin Laden is gone, the challenge for Zawahiri
will be to keep non-Egyptians in Al Qaeda. Members pledged their
loyalty to bin Laden personally, not to the organization, so a new
round of declarations will have to be made, providing Zawahiri an
immediate test of his popularity. One big difference in Zawahiri’s
leadership from that of his predecessor is likely to be a renewed focus
on Egypt. Zawahiri’s terrorist career began when he was fifteen years
old, when he started a cell to overthrow the Egyptian government.
Now the government actually has been overthrown, no thanks to
Zawahiri’s efforts. The country is in a tumultuous and formative but
also vulnerable moment in its history, which Zawahiri will seek to
exploit. He knows that Egypt is the real game in the Islamist contest
for power. The future of Egypt will determine much of what happens
in the rest of the Arab world. No matter how it turns out, the
Egyptian revolution will be seen historically as a bookend to the
Iranian revolution in 1979, which added reality to the radical Islamist
agenda and inspired so many young Muslims, like Zawahiri, to take
up jihad. Iran showed them that they actually could take over a major
Muslim country and turn it into a theocracy. Zawahiri was always
frustrated that it was a Shiite country that became the first important
Islamic theocracy in the modern world. He will devote himself to
making Egypt a Sunni replica of the Iranian state, and not the end of
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