comp, but overall demand remains robust. Instagram feedback was notably positive
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comp, but overall demand remains robust. Instagram feedback was notably positive,
with many suggesting the demand is additive (not reallocation from core Facebook).
Estimates vs Consensus
Our 1Q17 and 2Q17 revenue and EBITDA estimates are ahead above the Street. We
assume ~800bps of advertising growth deceleration in 3Q and another ~400bps in 4Q,
and our 2017 estimates are also slightly above consensus. On that premise, we are
comfortable that Street estimates sufficiently reflect potential impact of News Feed ad
load deceleration in 2H17.
Table 15: Facebook Estimate Summary
1017 2017 2017 2018
Revenue
BofA ML est. $7,905 $9,303 $38,546 $48,882
Growth Y/Y% 47% 45% 39% 27%
Street $7,798 $8,993 $37,774 $48,103
BofA ML vs Street Above Above Above Above
EBITDA
BofA ML est. $4,886 $5,844 $24,358 $30,905
Street $4,743 $5,638 $23,775 $30,409
BofA ML vs Street Above Above Above Above
EPS
BofA ML est. 1.14 $1.37 $5.67 $7.01
Street 1.11 $1.30 $5.43 $6.75
BofA ML vs Street Above Above Above Above
GAAP EPS
BofA ML est. 0.94 $1.17 $4.86 $6.02
Street 0.86 $1.06 $4.45 $5.76
BofA ML vs Street Above Above Above Above
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research estimates, Bloomberg, as of 4/4/2017
Our $165 price objective is based on 24x our non-GAAP 2018E EPS and 27x GAAP EPS,
multiples equal to about 1x 2018E revenue growth, mostly in-line with its social and
online media peers. Facebook is our top large cap idea for positive estimate revision
potential in 2017.
Bankof America
Merrill Lynch Internet/e-Commerce | 06 April2017 23
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014909
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