Table 11: Amazon Estimate Summary
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Table 11: Amazon Estimate Summary
1Q17 2017 2017 2018
Revenue
BofAML est. $35,335 $36,784 $164,532 $194,826
Growth Y/Y% 21% 21% 21% 18%
Street $35,255 $36,815 $165,158 $199 387
BofAML vs. Street Above Below Below Below
EBITDA
BofAML est. $4,153 $4 626 $18,246 $22,022
Street $4,085 $4,835 $19,382 $24,850
BofAML vs. Street Above Below Below Below
EPS
BofAML est. $2.34 $2.86 $10.90 $14.37
Street $2.28 $3.30 $12.60 $18.16
BofAML vs. Street Above Below Below Below
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research estimates, Bloomberg, as of 4/4/2017
Our PO of $1,100 is based on our SOP that values AWS at $127bn or $259 per share
and the retail business at $413bn or $841 per share. Our 5.5x AWS multiple is a modest
premium to the software/SaaS comp group at 5.0x on 2018 sales, and 0.9x multiple is a
premium to a retail general merchandise comp group at 0.7x. We think the premiums are
warranted given share gains and superior growth. Our $1,100 price objective implies
2.8x 2018E Price/Sales, a multiple above the high end of Amazon's historical range of
1.0-2.5x. We argue the historical P/S multiple should increase given positive 3rd party
sales (3P) that is reported on a net basis, a higher AWS revenue contribution, an
increasing advertising contribution, and record gross profit margins.
; ; BankofAmerica <2”
16 Internet/e-Commerce | 06 April 2017 Merrill Lynch
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014902
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