dependent on what happens with deposit costs. SNV’s current sensitivity analysis
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dependent on what happens with deposit costs. SNV’s current sensitivity analysis
assumes a 50-60% deposit beta.
= SNV keenly focused on credit. Chief Credit Officer Kevin Howard noted
expectations for net charge-offs to naturally tick up as recoveries become less of a
benefit and some seasoning in the loan portfolio. Recall during its earnings call,
management lowered its FY16 net charge-off range to 10-20bp (3Q: 12bp}. Mr.
Howard noted that he would not be surprised if NCOs increased to 15-20bp in 2017
(cons: 12bp) and stay near those levels for the near future.
= Management reiterated its intent to continue to deploy excess capital.
Although SNV will disclose a more detailed capital plan in January, management
expects to continue deploying excess capital via buybacks, M&A and/or organic
growth. When asked how management should utilize its excess capital, 56% of the
audience polled prefers SNV pursue M&A opportunities (vs. 8% last year). In
reaction, Mr. Stelling noted continued interest in strategic acquisitions (like Entaire}
but hesitant to execute a large, dilutive transaction. While DTA accretion could allow
for continued share repurchase, management may choose to be a bit more
opportunistic around buybacks given the run up in the stock.
Chart 41: What would you like to see management do with its excess capital?
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Be even more Increase the dividend Support faster organic Pursue M&A
aggressive on payout growth opportunities
buybacks
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
= Management is positive but cautious on online lending partnerships. Investors
were also relatively split in how they view SNV’s partnerships with online lenders
SoFi and GreenSky. The majority (57%) remains cautious on how these loans will
perform during a credit cycle. Mr. Stelling agreed; however, he believes these
partnerships represent the right vehicle to help the bank grow its retail portfolio to
20-25% of loans (in line with its strategy to transition away from CRE) and achieve
its 1.0% ROA target (3Q: 0.88%). Although we note that SNV is being deliberate
around growing this book and is targeting these loans to grow to approximately 2-
3% of total loans.
28 2016 Future of Financials Conference | 17 November 2016 Bankof America 2
Merrill Lynch
HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_014342
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